Abstract
China’s rapid expansion in green industries – the green leap forward – is frequently cited as evidence of the effectiveness of state-led industrial policy in accelerating technological upgrading and decarbonisation. This article critically examines that claim through a comparative analysis of two flagship sectors: solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles. Drawing on ecological modernisation theory and the political economy of industrial policy, the paper conceptualises green industrialisation as a politically embedded process shaped by persistent trade-offs between scale expansion, market discipline, and environmental sustainability. Using qualitative document analysis and secondary data, the study traces the evolution of state support instruments in both sectors and evaluates their effectiveness through Rodrik’s criteria of embeddedness, discipline, and accountability. The findings show that while state intervention has been instrumental in overcoming entry barriers, coordinating large-scale investment, and enabling the emergence of globally competitive firms, it has also generated enduring distortions, including overcapacity, policy dependence, and environmental ambiguity.
Keywords: Green transition, electric vehicles, solar panels, China, new state capitalism, new industrial policy
