Zero-sum thinking in regional development? New scientific study by Balázs Páger and Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringerin in European Planning Studies

Zero-sum thinking in regional development?
– Green and/or inclusive socio-economic development dynamics in challenged regions

Simon Baumgartinger-Seiringer and Balázs Páger

Abstract

This paper adopts a dynamic perspective on regional contexts to examine how structurally challenged regions simultaneously pursue green and inclusive socio-economic development. We propose a simple typology of problem types that differentiates challenged regions by the direction of change in socio-economic and environmental dynamics:

• (1) Prosperity on eroding foundations,
• (2) Catching up towards unsustainability, and
• (3) In an unsustainability trap.

Using mixed methods across 11 case study regions in the Danube macro area, we compare them along five lines of inquiry:

• (i) existing assets and points of departure,
• (ii) framing and prioritization of goals,
• (iii) actor constellations and networks,
• (iv) modes of implementation, and
• (v) lessons on shifting trajectories.

A core finding is the recurrence of zero-sum and trade-off thinking in challenged regions: environmental gains are often counterbalanced against (perceived or actual) socio-economic losses, albeit in ways that vary across contexts. Policy implications centre on context-sensitive interventions: designing measures that fit distinct regional problem types and trajectories. This includes reframing sustainability, conditioning and sequencing support toward directional (green and inclusive) change, strengthening multi-level coordination and brokering, embedding pilots into longer-term programmes, empowering civic actors, and measuring development direction alongside prosperity levels.