Sustaining the Green Turn: What Slovenian Farms Teach Us
About Durable Environmental Commitments
by Imre Fertő and Štefan Bojnec
Agri-environmental climate schemes (AECS) have become a central pillar of the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). They aim to reward farmers for providing public goods — biodiversity, soil health, carbon storage — alongside food production. But while uptake has been encouraging across Member States, one persistent challenge remains: sustaining participation.
Our recent study of Slovenian farms between 2014 and 2021 sheds light on this durability challenge. Using detailed farm-level panel data and robust econometric methods, we identify the factors that keep farms engaged — and those that drive them out. These insights matter for policymakers designing the post-2027 CAP, where ecological ambition must be matched with durable farmer commitment.
Why duration matters
The benefits of AECS are cumulative. Reducing pesticide use or planting cover crops for one year has limited impact. Sustained participation, by contrast, builds soil fertility, restores biodiversity, and stabilises rural ecosystems. Yet, as in many EU countries, a substantial share of Slovenian farms enrol for a single season and then exit.
This “durability gap” reduces the return on public investment and undermines the credibility of green transition strategies. Understanding the drivers of persistence is therefore critical to ensure that public funds deliver real, lasting environmental benefits.
Evidence from Slovenia
Our study draws on eight years of micro-level data from the Slovenian Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN), covering 306 commercial farms annually. To capture not only who joins but how long they stay, we combined survival analysis and discrete-time hazard models.
Three key findings stand out:
1. Economic resilience underpins durability Larger farms and those with diversified income sources — especially off-farm income — are significantly more likely to stay enrolled. Economic stability reduces the perceived risk of committing to long-term environmental measures and allows farms to absorb compliance costs.
2. Path dependence is powerful Once a farm participates, the probability of continued engagement rises sharply. Familiarity with administration, established routines, and visible on-farm benefits make exiting less attractive.
3. Market pressures erode commitment Farms that rely heavily on volatile commodity markets are more likely to exit early. Interestingly, this effect is particularly strong among larger farms. Market exposure creates short-term pressures that crowd out long-term stewardship.
Surprising nuances
Contrary to expectations — and to findings from some Western European contexts — neither land productivity nor livestock density significantly influenced retention. This likely reflects Slovenia’s farm structure, dominated by small, diversified holdings, and a policy environment that partially offsets productivity trade-offs.
Farm type, however, mattered. Grazing livestock farms showed shorter participation spells, while granivore farms tended to stay engaged. This underlines that the fit between AECS design and farm systems matters for durability.
Policy lessons
The evidence points to clear directions for policy design:
Lower entry barriers Because prior participation is such a strong predictor of retention, the first step matters most. Simplified procedures, “welcome bonuses”, or peer mentoring can help hesitant farmers take that initial step.
Target support where vulnerability is greatest Small farms and market-exposed operations face greater barriers to long-term engagement. Tailored instruments — such as green microloans, flexible reporting schedules, or integrated investment grants — can help level the playing field.
Reward ecological value Market-aligned incentives can make stewardship pay. Ecosystem-service payments, eco-label premiums, or partnerships with retailers can transform AECS from a compliance exercise into a source of competitive advantage.
Manage path dependence wisely While durability is desirable, lock-in to low-ambition practices is not. Policymakers can introduce periodic re-bidding, results-based bonuses, and reserved funding for newcomers to keep schemes dynamic and fair.
Implications for the CAP reform
The post-2027 CAP will face mounting pressure to deliver measurable environmental outcomes. The Slovenian evidence suggests that durability should be a core performance indicator, on par with enrolment rates.
Tailoring incentives to farm types and market contexts is essential.
For example:
· Small mixed-livestock farms benefit most from up-front support and income diversification opportunities.
· Large arable enterprises respond better to per-hectare top-ups for practices like reduced tillage or cover cropping.
· High-value horticulture farms need yield-based bonuses to offset the costs of reduced pesticide use.
Such differentiation does not complicate policy unnecessarily; it makes it more effective and equitable.
Caveats and next steps
Our study is robust, but some limitations remain. The aggregated AECS payment data in FADN do not distinguish between different measures, masking important heterogeneity. Moreover, the dataset excludes the smallest farms, which may face different constraints.
Future research should integrate richer administrative data, environmental indicators, and qualitative insights to capture these dynamics more precisely. Multi-country studies across Central and Eastern Europe would be particularly valuable, given the structural differences in farm size and market integration.
From compliance to stewardship
The broader lesson is that economic resilience and smart policy design are prerequisites for durable environmental commitments. With the right mix of financial stability, market incentives, and institutional support, farms can evolve from reluctant rule-takers into proactive stewards of Europe’s rural landscapes.
For the CAP’s green architecture to succeed, durability must become the metric that matters. By aligning economic and ecological goals, the EU can ensure that public investments yield the sustained environmental benefits that Europe’s citizens — and ecosystems — urgently need.
Bojnec, Š., Fertő, I. Exploring the drivers of farm sustained participation in agri-environmental programmes.
Agricultural and Food Economics 13, 50 (2025).
https://doi.org/10.1186/s40100-025-00396-0
